Steele the one: Cubs' Justin to serve up K's to the Brewers

Last time we chatted some baseball we were fresh off sweeping our strikeout prop looks and our No Runs First Inning (NRFI) bets. It seems only right we return to both of those markets to find some winners this Wednesday.

Cashing on some Ks today

Justin Steele over 5.5 Ks (-134 FanDuel)

Chicago's Justin Steele has gone up and down a bit on his strikeout prop, but we're seeing enough to give us confidence that he's a solid play today. For starters, he's finished with K totals of eight and six in his past two outings. For another thing, the last time he saw Milwaukee, he fanned eight batters.

The Brewers are the true kicker here. No team is striking out more against LHP than Milwaukee, and they also seriously struggle to get on base and hit lefties, which suggests Steele should see 6+ innings of work. Steele has also seemed far steadier on the road to this prop, going over 5.5 in three straight away games.

Cal Quantrill under 3.5 Ks (-128 FanDuel)

Cleveland's Cal Quantrill has really struggled this season. He's under this 3.5 mark in nine of his 12 starts, and as you might imagine, his strikeout metrics are not good. He ranks among the league's worst in Ks/inning, swinging strike rate and called strike plus whiff rate. Quantrill just is not a strikeout pitcher, and that figures to benefit us here with this prop.

Atlanta fans at the sixth-lowest rate against righties, and they also hit RHP better than just about anyone. Considering Quantrill has allowed 6+ runs in three straight starts, it wouldn't surprise us at all to see the Braves whack him out of this game early. That's only going to help us more cash this under, we love this spot.

NRFI trends to support some looks

Oakland-Detroit under 0.5 runs in the first (-110 Caesars)

We have a pair of promising pitcher NRFI trends in this one, and while their 2022 numbers aren't as strong, if we simply look at the sample size we have in 2023, this is seeming like a play.

Ken Waldichuk is 5-1 to the NRFI on the road this year and 9-2 overall, while Eduardo Rodrigues is 5-0 at home and 11-0 overall to the NRFI this season.

Offensive trends really put this over the edge. Oakland has hit the NRFI in seven of their last 10 games and 72% on the season. Detroit is 9-1 to the NRFI in their past 10 and 77% on the season.

Cincinnati-Washington under 0.5 runs in the first (+105 DraftKings)

Graham Ashcraft is starting for the Reds, and he's got a 6-0 record on the road to the NRFI, and 13-2 overall. Last season, he hit the NRFI in 74% of his starts.

Josiah Gray will be on the mound for Washington, and he's 5-1 to the NRFI at home and 14-3 overall. Last year, Gray hit the NRFI in 61% of his games.

The offensive trends look good too. Cincinnati has been a part of a No Run First Inning in seven of their past 10 games and has hit in 79% of their road games this season. Washington has hit the NRFI in 67% of their home games and 68% on the season.

In the news ...

Angels place Mike Trout on IL — The Angels were dealt a tough blow to their postseason hopes, as star Mike Trout fractured his left hand, an injury expected to keep him out multiple weeks. Los Angeles is currently seven games back in the AL West and four games back from a wild-card spot. It seems the Angels may be wasting another MVP season, as Shohei Ohtani is -1450 to win AL MVP despite his team's standing. Ohtani is set to be a free agent this offseason and reportedly is likely to leave the Angels.

Anthony Edwards signs five-year extension with Minnesota — The Timberwolves and rising star Anthony Edwards have agreed to terms on a five-year, max rookie extension that will keep him in Minnesota through 2028. Edwards was the No. 1 pick in 2020 and averaged 24.6 points and 5.8 rebounds per game this past season, earning All-Star honors along the way.

Joey Chestnut wins hot dog eating contest again, but goes way under — Considering the line was set at 73.5 for Joey Chestnut's hot dogs, his 62 eaten on Tuesday is viewed as a disappointment by some. Still, Chestnut took home the win, his 16th in the past 17 years.

Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll